Confidence
P5-attribution Bayesian confidence dashboard. Per-tool Discovery (probability of being found) and Use (probability of being reused within 7 days) are estimated with a Beta(1,1) prior over a 30-day trailing window, and reported alongside 95% credible intervals.
Headline — overall Discovery / Use
Trial-weighted aggregate. Discovery is "probability the right tool is found"; Use is "probability of reuse within 7 days".
Discovery (weighted)
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95% credible interval shown alongside
Use (weighted)
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95% credible interval shown alongside
Trials (30 days)
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Posterior credible width depends on trial count
Per-tool — Discovery / Use by tool
Posterior mean and 95% credible interval for each tool. Tools with few trials show wider CIs (greater uncertainty).
| Tool | Discovery | 95% CI | D hits / trials | Use | 95% CI | U hits / trials |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | ||||||
Trend — daily confidence (from T+0)
Past snapshots (analytics/confidence_<DATE>.json) joined as a time series. The faint band is the 95% credible interval. The public dashboard reads from a static asset in the jpcite public repository.
Cadence: one cron snapshot per day (scripts/cron/confidence_update.py) + 5-minute in-memory cache.
Source: GET /v1/stats/confidence (live) · /analytics/confidence_index.json (history).
Methodology: confidence_methodology.md.
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